As U.S. federal agencies continue to manage their publication schedules following the government shutdown, investors are awaiting delays in official releases and new private surveys.
Gold prices surpassed $4,225 an ounce on Friday, hitting a one-month high and on track for their fourth consecutive monthly gain, as markets anticipate a higher probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Dovish comments from several Fed officials, coupled with weak economic data, have bolstered expectations of monetary easing.
Gold futures prices fell as the dollar held near six-month highs, while investors awaited further clarity on the path of US interest rates. During trading on Monday, gold futures for December delivery fell by 0.65% or $27 to $4,052.50 an ounce.
The shortened Thanksgiving week in the United States is likely to see official agencies continue announcing new release dates for data delayed due to the federal government shutdown. Producer prices, retail sales, and durable goods orders for September will be among the confirmed U.S. releases. Key housing price aggregates and regional economic surveys will also be published. Meanwhile, UK Chancellor Reeves will release the long-awaited autumn budget. Elsewhere in Europe, the eurozone’s largest economies are set to announce their November inflation figures and leading indicators measuring business and consumer confidence. Inflation rates in Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, and Japan will also be monitored through the Tokyo Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, Canada and India will update their GDP figures, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will set its interest rate.
Gold pared its losses to around $4,060 an ounce on Friday, but remained on track for a weekly decline as markets absorbed stronger U.S. jobs data, dovish central bank signals, and falling U.S. bond yields. A delayed Labor Department report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, initially reducing the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and pushing the dollar higher.
Gold futures prices fell after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would refrain from cutting interest rates at its December meeting. During trading on Friday, gold futures for December delivery fell by 0.5% or $19.70 to $4040.30 an ounce. The spot price of gold fell by 0.85% to $4,043.15 an ounce, while its counterpart for silver dropped by more than 3% to $49.02 an ounce. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell slightly by 0.1% to 100.04 points. Silver futures for December delivery fell 2.75% to $49.56 an ounce, while spot prices for platinum lost about 0.45% to $1,511.84, and palladium fell 0.6% to $1,372.59. According to the FedWatch tool, expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the Federal Reserve meeting in December have fallen to 35.4% from 98.1% a month earlier, while expectations of holding monetary policy steady have risen to a probability of 64.6% from 1.7%.
Oil prices rose during trading on Thursday, amid optimism about the demand outlook in the United States following a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories last week. Brent crude futures for January 2026 delivery rose 0.25% or 16 cents to $63.67 a barrel. Nymex crude futures for December delivery rose 0.35% or 22 cents to $59.66 a barrel. Both benchmark crude oils recovered slightly after falling more than 2% in Wednesday's session, following a Reuters report that the United States had informed Ukraine that it accepted a proposed framework to end the war with Russia that included relinquishing territory and some weapons, according to two sources familiar with the talks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels in the week ending November 14, compared with expectations of a 603,000-barrel decline. Gains in prices were limited by a rise in gasoline and distillate inventories for the first time in more than a month.
Gold attracted some sellers after rising to $4,110 during the day, moving away from its highest level in a week reached the previous day. The US dollar continued to be bought amid receding expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to negatively impact the non-yielding precious metal. Furthermore, the prevailing optimism in global equity markets is another factor weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The aforementioned background suggests that the path of least resistance for gold is downward. However, traders may choose to wait for the release of the September US non-farm payrolls report before forming new predictions regarding the direction of the gold pair. Furthermore, concerns about weakening economic momentum, stemming from the longest US government shutdown on record, could limit deeper losses for the precious metal.
Gold edged higher on Wednesday as risk aversion in global markets boosted demand for safe-haven assets. At the time of writing, gold was trading around $4,113, up nearly 1%, continuing its recovery after briefly dipping below $4,000 on Tuesday.Global stocks remain under pressure amid concerns about overvalued valuations of technology companies, keeping investors on the defensive ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement. Sentiment is also cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes later today, as markets brace for the delayed September non-farm payrolls report due on Thursday. Meanwhile, the risk-averse atmosphere is helping gold maintain its upward momentum.However, growing doubts among Federal Reserve officials about cutting interest rates again in December are casting a shadow over monetary policy expectations.