Citigroup expects gold prices to surpass $5,000 an ounce in the first quarter of the year, with silver reaching $100 an ounce. However, while silver and other industrial metals are likely to continue outperforming, gold prices could see a significant decline later in 2026 as global tensions subside.
Strategists led by Kenny Ho raised their forecast for the price of gold over the next three months to $5,000 an ounce and the price of silver to $100 an ounce on Tuesday, as the Wall Street firm expects the precious metals bull market to continue until early 2026.
Analysts cited "increasing geopolitical risks, continued supply shortages in the market, and renewed uncertainty about the independence of the Federal Reserve" as reasons for raising expectations.
While both metals hit new record highs in the new year, Citi reaffirmed its prediction that silver would outperform gold, with expectations that base metals would ultimately capture the most attention.
The strategists wrote: "Our long-term predictions of silver's superiority and the expansion of the precious metals market to include industrial metals, with industrial metals taking center stage during the same period, have proven successful."
Analysts also pointed to continued tight supply in the physical market, particularly in silver and platinum group metals, explaining that delays and uncertainty surrounding upcoming Section 232 tariff decisions for critical metals pose “significant dual risks to trade flows and prices.”
Citi warned that if high tariffs are imposed, the shortage of physical metals could worsen, potentially leading to sharp price increases as shipments of metals to the United States rise. However, once the tariffs become clear, these metal stockpiles are likely to return to overseas markets, easing the physical supply shortage in the rest of the world and putting downward pressure on prices.
Strategic analysts warned that “the collapse in silver prices as a result of capital outflows driven by S232 could lead to tactical selling in other precious metals and base metals markets,” but stressed that they “will view this as a buying opportunity when prices are low in a rising market,” because the factors driving the rise in metal prices are still in place.
Citi's updated forecast assumes geopolitical tensions will subside after the first quarter, leading to lower demand for precious metals later this year, with gold being the most vulnerable to a downward correction. However, the bank still expects industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, to perform well in the second half of 2026.