According to JP Morgan's analysis, talk of a halt in gold's upward trend has theoretical justifications, but the supporting factors remain stronger so far.
First: What supports the continuation of the upward trend?
1️⃣ Strong demand from central banks
Since 2022, central bank purchases have doubled, especially after the freezing of Russian assets, as countries sought to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.
China, in particular, still holds a relatively low percentage of gold in its reserves compared to developed countries, which means there is room for further purchases in the future.
2️⃣ Geopolitical tensions
Gold has historically delivered a positive average return during major crises and outperforms other assets when risks escalate.
3️⃣ Hedging against inflation and currency weakness
Gold is used as a hedge against currency erosion and long-term financial risks.
4️⃣ 2026 Predictions
The bank's estimates indicate that central bank purchases will continue at a strong average level throughout 2026, reinforcing the long-term upward trend.