Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, recovering from earlier losses as the US dollar weakened slightly amid geopolitical developments related to tensions between the United States and Iran. Despite this rebound during the day, gains remained limited due to continued macroeconomic pressures.
Gold traded near $4,730 after hitting a daily low of $4,657, and is still on track to record a weekly loss of nearly 2%.
The US dollar weakened after reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to visit Islamabad for talks with Pakistani officials. While there are no direct talks with the United States at present, this move slightly boosted market hopes for a possible resumption of diplomatic efforts, providing some support for gold.
However, fundamental factors continue to weigh on the precious metal. Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven up oil prices, exacerbating concerns about global inflation. Consequently, expectations are growing that major central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, will keep interest rates high for an extended period, which supports bond yields and limits gold's gains.
Although the extension of the ceasefire has helped to calm fears of an immediate escalation, ongoing disputes between the United States and Iran continue to negatively affect investor confidence, with markets remaining highly sensitive to any geopolitical developments.
Economic data:
Recent data showed a slight improvement in US consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's index rising to 49.8 in April, exceeding expectations. Inflation expectations were mixed, with a slight decline in the short term and a modest rise in the long term.
Artistic perspective:
Technically, gold maintains a negative outlook in the short term, trading below a key moving average between $4,750 and $4,775, which forms a strong resistance zone. Immediate support lies between $4,700 and $4,650, and a break below this range could open the door for further declines.
Predictions:
Despite gold receiving some temporary support from a weaker dollar, the overall outlook remains cautious. Pressure is expected to persist due to rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Any upward movement is likely to remain limited unless there is a fundamental shift in the underlying conditions.